Traditionalists in Transition

“The bottom line is this: politics and religion in America mix. They always have and for the foreseeable future, they will…”

From the Statue of Liberty

When I was in  public school in the 1970’s, one of the most bewildering holidays was Columbus Day, October 12.  Although we celebrated the “discovery” of the New World, we also knew that: Columbus  actually landed in the Bahamas, not in Northern America, and then he later traveled further south, not north; the consequences of his coming had a devastating impact on Native Americans; and that a band of Vikings led by Leif Eriksson set foot in North America and established a settlement in Canada, 500 years before him.  

However, aside from hosting Columbus Day (which is increasingly being recognized instead as Indigenous Peoples’ Day), the early half of October is also dedicated to National Hispanic Heritage Month, officially recognized by President Regan in 1988. 

For me, this month has been a time to reflect on the complicated history of immigration (including forced migration through the slave trade) over the centuries, and the challenges we still have welcoming the stranger into our midst.  We’ve seen this tension flare over the past year with the denigration of statues of Columbus by the left and the resistance to legal immigration and even refugees on the right.

A remarkable documentary series that I would encourage you to watch that chronicles the massive immigration patterns of ethnic groups to the United States is the History Channel’s two-part series America: Promised Land.  The one thing that is clear from the series is that because, not despite the fact that we are a nation of immigrants, our racial and ethnic mix is dynamic and will always likely be. 

The History Channel’s America: Promised Land

Black and Hispanic Traditionalists

The story of the lives, cultures and politics of people groups in America is not static.  As our culture changes, so do they.  We change them and they change US. Two of these groups, Black and Hispanic traditionalists with strong religious ties, have historically been important constituencies within the Democratic Party. These two groups are particularly in transition.  They are more socially conservative than the Democratic Party’s more progressive leadership/shift, although they generally reflect the party’s economic perspectives and views of the role of government. 

This gap between party elites and their rank and file reflects a larger narrative of an increasing gap between activists in both parties and the center of the American electorate.  However, the Democrat median has moved farther to the left than the Republican median has to the right (see here). Some political strategists have suggested that the growing rift between progressive elites and base traditionalists is widening within the Democratic Party, and is threatening to break up the longstanding Democratic coalition. 

This could have profound implications on national elections for years to come, and in fact, it already has.

Recent Elections

In 2019, more Black and Latino Democrats identified themselves as moderates than liberals.  This aligns with More in Common’s data which revealed a whiter demographic among the party’s “Progressive Activist” tribe, which excludes many Black and Latino voters who ascribe to more moderate positions and exhibit a reverence for traditional values including family, religion, and individualism. 

An effect of this tension was evident during both the 2016 and 2020 (presidential and congressional) elections, where there was a measurable surge in Republican-voting Latinos. This increase has since been explained by the Trump campaign’s appeal to “deeply rooted beliefs about economic opportunity, individualism, and traditional social values” which helped to attract traditional Latinos voters, some of whom had retreated from socialist regimes and were repelled by socialist language stirring on the left. The 2016 and 2020 elections, as well as subsequent polls, revealed that voting trends among Hispanics were more alike to the voting patterns of more flexible “centrists”. A June 2021 survey by Roll Call reported that of the Hispanic voters they surveyed, more expressed a preference for capitalism (47%) over socialism (28%) and for reducing taxes on businesses (44%) over increasing government spending (33%). These results from Hispanic voters were closer in margin to the results of respondents who claimed to be Independent than those who claimed to be Democrat. Roll Call concluded that Hispanics were “behaving more like independents than Democrats and were open to a center-right economic message” (Roll Call).

Pew’s 2018 Political Party Survey

Why it Matters

According to Pew’s recent highlights on U.S. Latino’s for National Hispanic Heritage Month, the U.S. Hispanic population has grown faster than the national growth rate since 2010, reaching 62.1 million in 2020. The U.S. Hispanic population is also no longer majority Catholic and have since become the fastest-growing group of Evangelicals in America (though the Evangelical church is still 75% white).  

A 2018 Pew survey also concluded that non-white Democratic voters are more religiously similar to Republicans than to their white counterparts. For instance, black Democrats' responses revealed that they are as, if not more, religiously committed (attending church weekly, praying frequently, recognize religion as important in their lives, etc.) as Republicans as a whole. 

The bottom line is this: politics and religion in America mix.  They always have and for the foreseeable future, they will.  The traditionalists who are in transition are just one example of the ongoing relationships between the religious orientation, identity and motivation of people groups in America who make us the dynamic country that we are.   It is critical that the institutions which are working to rebuild social cohesion and a shared vision for the common good understand this religious dynamic within the American electorate, and engage faith respectfully, thoughtfully and with an appreciation for the critical role that they have played over the centuries in promoting reforms to make this country a better place for all.